The Friday NBA schedule features an eight-game slate, including a pair of nationally-televised contests. Dallas hosts Memphis at 7:30 p.m. ET, while Denver faces Phoenix in another Western Conference showdown at 10 p.m. ET. Suns veteran Kevin Durant has scored at least 26 points in four of his last five games, finishing with 34 points against the Clippers on Tuesday night. He is listed at -150 (risk $150 to win $100) to score 25-plus points against the Nuggets on Friday, which is the second most-bet player points prop at DraftKings.
Other stars in action on Friday night include Nikola Jokic (Nuggets), James Harden (Clippers) and Donovan Mitchell (Cavaliers). Mitchell scored 26 points against Miami on Wednesday, and his over/under for points scored on Friday is 23.5 in the NBA odds from SportsLine Consensus.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past six-plus seasons. Now, the model has revealed its projections for some of the most-bet NBA player props on Friday night.
Raptors vs. Jazz (7:30 p.m. ET): Immanuel Quickley 8+ assists (+190)
Toronto is another team dealing with multiple key injuries, as Gradey Dick (knee), RJ Barrett (rest) and Ochai Agbaji (ankle) are among the players sidelined in this game. This gives Quickley an opportunity to spend more time with the ball, and his Over is the most-bet assists prop tonight.
Model prediction: Quickley is finishing with 7.6 assists across 35 minutes in the model’s projections. This prop pays +190, so the model shows value on Quickley reaching eight assists. This prop pays +190 at DraftKings:
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Kings vs. Spurs (10 p.m. ET): Keon Ellis Under 2.5 3-pointers made (-175)
Ellis is another player who will receive additional playing time due to sidelined teammates, but he is only averaging 8.1 points per game this season. He is shooting an exceptional 43.5% from 3-point range, knocking down 100 of 230 attempts. Ellis is averaging just over two triples per game when he has been in the starting lineup (11 games), and he shot 1 of 4 from downtown against the Nuggets as a starter on Wednesday.
Model prediction: Ellis is finishing with 2.1 3-pointers made across 27 minutes in the model’s projections. However, there is only slight value at -175. This prop is available with less juice at -160 via BetMGM:
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Nuggets vs. Suns (10 p.m. ET): Nikola Jokic Under 13.5 rebounds (-138)
Jokic, who is questionable with an ankle injury, is the most-bet rebounds prop on Friday night, and he is also the third-most-bet over/under prop (13.5 rebounds). He is averaging 12.8 rebounds per game this season, and has recorded at least 14 rebounds in four straight games. However, this has led to an inflated prop total, which the model views as a chance to fade Jokic.
Model prediction: Jokic is finishing with 11.6 rebounds across 35 minutes in the model’s projections. There model strongly recommends avoiding this popular bet. You can get plus-money for under 12.5 rebounds at Caesars:
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Heat vs. Timberwolves (8 p.m. ET): Tyler Herro Under 24.5 points (-130)
Herro missed Wednesday’s game against Cleveland due to an illness, forcing Miami to use Alec Burks and Terry Rozier in the backcourt. Herro is questionable for this game, so his status is worth monitoring. He is averaging 23.9 points per game this season, and he has gone Under 25 points in four of his last five outings.
Model prediction: Herro is finishing with 22.8 points across 36 minutes in the model’s projections. The model recommends the Under for Herro’s point total. Herro is fetching -130 on this prop at FanDuel:
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Want more NBA picks for tonight?
You’ve seen the model’s NBA prop picks for the most popular props on Friday. Now, get NBA projections for every player prop at SportsLine.